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Copyright Macroplan Australia 2009 This work is currently in draft form. Accuracy is important to the intentions of this project however maps and images throughout this publication are for illustration purposes only and not intended for navigation.
Australia 2050 - Table of contents: Introduction - Australians Rock Part 1 New Challenges - A new Australia emerges 1.1 Innovation, Communication and Information Technology 1.2 Globalisation – Our new geography 1.3 Fast Growth and Fast Ageing – Our new demographics 1.4 Social Change – Our new lifestyles 1.5 Governance – Our new states Part 2 New Insights - Waves, cycles and timelines 2.1 .Waves and Cycles 2.2 Nation and City Building Era’s 2.3 Post War Reconstruction Wave 1945-1991 2.4 .Cycles
2.5 Globalisation Wave 1991-2050
Part 3. New Understanding - Growth & change 1939 to 20083.1 Population 3.2 Socio Economic 3.3 Economic 3.4 City and Regional Change 3.5 Housing Part 4. New Parameters - Where are we now4.1 Infrastructure 4.2 Productive Capacity – Food constraints 4.3 Human Resources 4.4 Environment Part 5. New Identity - A global perspective5.1 Trading Relationships 5.2 Social and Cultural Relationships 5.3 Competition and Opportunity Part 6 New Opportunities - 2050 Forecasts; Opportunities and Constraints6.1 Population – Human Resources 6.2 Social and cultural change 6.3 Economic 6.4 Proposed Infrastructure 6.5 Technology 6.6 New Productive Capacity 6.7 Information Technology 6.8 Communications 6.9 Environmental Part 7 New Directions - Our nation and city building agenda 7.1 New Objectives 7.2 New Tools 7.3 Opportunity Spectrum 7.4 Rights 7.5 Options and Ideas 7.6 Bottom Line Requirements 7.7 Private Sector 7.8 Federal Government 7.9 State Government 7.10 Local Government 7.11 Not for profit 7.12 Regulatory Frameworks 7.13 Policy Settings
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The following extract is from the book Australia 2050 by Brian Haratsis and the Macroplan Team: |
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1.2 Globalisation - Our New Geography Globalisation since World War II has been a primary driver of world economic growth. This has been achieved through international agreements such as GATT (1) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which evolved from GATT. The WTO has promoted free trade through tariff and trade barrier reduction together with harmonisation of world trading laws, patens and conventions. World exports rose from 8.5% of Gross World Product in 1970 to 16.1% of gross world product in 2001 (2)
This project argues that globalisation is a reshaping our identity, lifestyles, position and responsibilities as part of the Global community. Our cities are being planned and priced to accommodate European style living with European land and housing prices. This means high density, high-rise housing based on public transport that creates new challenges in practice here in Australia – it costs 3 times as much to build high rise dwellings than to build traditional detached dwellings and we do not deliver good quality, high frequency public transport. Our eastern seaboard has become so congested that we are now seeing land and air quality stresses. We are obviously not European. As development in our major cities becomes more limited by urban growth boundaries and suburbia starts to bulge at the seams, peri-urban, regional and remote areas of Australia are taking on a new significance. Australia needs to look inland and North for solutions. Access to our ports is inadequate for the major resource and mining sectors of remote Australia if the sector is working at capacity, major roads and bridges need duplication in order to meet our road transport demands, our most liveable cities are congested and struggling with public transport, our broadband and mobile phone coverage is slow and patchy, our cities have critically short land supplies and our houses are amongst the least affordable in the world. There are now three national drivers pushing Australia towards a new Capricornia North of the Tropic of Capricorn; The long resource boom and inevitable bust, the need to build on our agricultural strengths, and more recently the added pressures of climate change. A new remote and regional Australia is emerging as our capital cities struggle to grow and evolve to meet the needs of a turbulent marketplace. We do not currently have the planning and infrastructure delivery capacity to support a new, globally oriented Nation as we head towards 2050 and if we don’t start planning for change now, there is a real chance we could miss the boat. (No pun intended) If Australia is to plan as a Nation, continuing to build some of the best cities in the world and ensuring the infrastructure is in place for continued growth as a Nation in the long run. Current, short sighted urban and regional planning needs ‘20/50’ vision for Australia to join the rest of the players on the field of our economic dreamings. Structure planning, urban design guidelines and residential density issues hide the much bigger picture; lack of housing affordability and the things that make us economically competitive - If workers can’t afford housing, they can’t provide a labour force, if land prices are too high and labour is unavailable locally, industry will set up elsewhere. These are all driving forces in the growth of regional areas throughout Australia and must be a considered when planning for our future. At present we have no national approach and very limited State approaches to planning for regional areas. Potentially, global workforce flows(3) mean we have a good supply of “effective labour force’ labour(4) available to meet our future labour force needs as the map indicates, however our metropolitan infrastructure cannot cope with existing, let alone the future pressures of transport, housing, health/social services and freight movement/port access. Labour market competition from other countries will force us to address traffic congestion, limited land availability and housing affordability in order to maintain our competitiveness.
Internationally trade exposed industries such as car manufacturing industries, white goods and electronics are likely to reduce real wage rates over time in order to compete. This means that, for a significant number of Australians the cost of living must drop and prime cost items such as housing and energy must reduce significantly in the medium term if Australia is to maintain its competitiveness. Land use and regional planning is now a National issue. Critical infrastructure including ports, road and rail networks, needs to be delivered and major resource project approvals that take years to process need to be streamlined and consistent. Infrastructure investment (or lack of it!) has also been poorly planned creating an urgent need to set National goals and invest wisely in Australia’s future. The Rudd government’s Infrastructure Australia initiative is a small step but it is an important initiative that could support aggressive infrastructure planning and spending. We have simply not understood the implications of globalisation or global competitiveness and the resulting social changes for our nation and cities. Australia’s strategic and regulatory frameworks need an urgent overhaul to meet the challenges ahead. We need to move our thinking from Capitals of ‘capital’ measured by the number of ‘headquarter’ buildings for major business, Gross State Product (GSP) and value of construction, to a ‘network of cities and towns’ measured by their contribution to national development, global competitiveness, business and social networks, and cultural values. We need to shift the focus from capital city planning to Nation and City building, using new ideas, new regulatory systems, new approval and development and new approaches to governance and infrastructure investment. We must now move beyond evolution, its time for a planning revolution! The size of the new Airbus A380 with up to 853 seats (in an all economy configuration) and using a more fuel efficient Gas To Liquid (GTL) fuel system and the Boeing 747 Dreamliner, seating 330 people (the most fuel efficient Boeing to date) and more highly efficient smaller jets are changing the location of international gateways and the geographical relationship between Australia and the rest of the world. Already Middle Eastern airlines (Emirates, Qatar Ai etc,) are servicing Australia with direct flights on their long haul routes rather than Hong Kong or Singapore. In 2009, the pacific route to the USA has doubled the number of airlines with the inclusion of Virgin and Delta and resulting in considerably lower airfares. The recently signed free trade agreement with the ASEAN nations will drive a major increase in business travel in the future and the close business and labour force relationships (minerals and energy) between Australia, Papua New Guinea, and the Timor Gap will continue to drive growth in international air travel from Darwin and to a lesser extent, Cairns. Every capital city airport in Australia has had major increases in demand and capacity in the last ten years. Since 2002 the number of international passengers (overseas visitors and Australian residents) has increased on a comparative monthly basis by over 30% (4) and domestic passengers on the same basis have increased by over 50%. In 2009 a significant increase in competition on the Pacific route to the USA has resulted in real average fare prices falling by over 50%. A significant increase in business, recreational and tourism travel is now anticipated. Regional air travel has continued to grow and rationalise into a smaller number of higher capacity airports with revenue passengers on regional/city air routes increasing from 6.5 million in 1984 to 16 million in 2005 (5) This overall trend within regional aviation reflected a major upward trend in the number of revenue passengers on air routes between major cities and regional areas and major downward trend in passengers between regional areas. The economic geography of Australia changed so dramatically between the 1980’s and 2000’s that the proportion of revenue air passengers on air routes between regional areas in the overall regional market decreased from 32% in 1984 to 9% 2005. (6) Australia operates within a new national and international geographic context. The Australian land mass has new Indigenous boundaries reflecting Native Title, new environmental boundaries created by National parks/world heritage areas and urban green wedges, new mineral claims and new climate parameters. This geographical context has changed substantially over time, at both National and International levels. International geographical change has affected trading patterns, influenced infrastructure and transport needs as well as defence relationships.
Current Export/Trade Flows ($) International tourism in Australia is evolving in terms of country of origin in line with Pacific Rim wealth and competition and alternative destinations. International tourism numbers have declined with economic conditions, lack of tourism infrastructure and a lack of market focus. It is critically important to encourage repeat visitation from Asia and India to realise the short term economic benefits and to establish long term social, economic and cultural relationships. Australia’s International geography is dynamic because it evolves simultaneously with other countries. Our current relationships, defence, tourism and immigration flows suggest that between 2010 and 2025 Australia will intensify trade relations with Japan, China and the ASEAN countries, India and the USA. Australias emerging and likely future international economic geography needs to be a key consideration in terms of Nation and City building. Strategically, we do have a range of strategic options to pursue in our interactions with Asia, India and the Pacific Rim nations. This is most likely to happen in a ‘many cities and regions to many cities and regions’ relationships and it will be important to develop stronger economic, cultural and defence gateways in regions such as Darwin, Cairns, Broome and Gold Coast as alternatives to Sydney Melbourne and Brisbane. Strengthening our long-term relationships internationally will demand a new ‘Equal Nation’ approach to Nation building will mean ‘opening up’ Northern Australia for resource and agricultural export. Jakarta is only 5 hours flight from Darwin, 7 hours from Cairns and 9 hours from Townsville. Comparatively, Melbourne is 5 hours from Darwin. Darwin and Cairns are already major flyin-flyout hubs for employers servicing the mining and energy sector in New Guinea and East Timor. It is time for a major nation building plan that can create long term cultural interactions and trade with Asia and our Pacific Rim neighbours. As of 2009 the Australian army is located across three major bases in Australia’s Northern regions. Robertson Barracks in Darwin, Lavarack Barracks in Townsville and Gallipolli Barracks in Brisbane. The Royal Australian Navy has two main bases in Sydney and Perth but the vast majority of the patrol boats are based in Darwin and Cairns. The major RAAF bases are Brisbane ( Amberley) Katherine (Tindal) and Williamstown with network bases in Darwin and Townsville. The Federal Government had been moving staff and resources to Townsville/North Queensland and Darwin/Northern Territory since the 1990’s with a strategic tilt from ‘forward defence’ to ‘regional co-operation and partnership’. (7) The local economies of Darwin and Townsville have been heavily influenced by ADF requirements and these relationships will continue to dramatically alter the geography of Australia. ADF expenditure was 22 billion in 2008/2009 (8) and 51 billion worth of procurement expenditure has been identified as being required in the 2006 – 2016 Defence Capability Plan (9) As at January 2008, up to 3500 Australian Defence Force personnel and 350 Australian Federal Police personnel are deployed on operations overseas to protect Australia and its national interests. In addition, up to 450 ADF personnel are deployed to conduct maritime protection operations in Australia’s Economic Exclusion Zone The defence challenge for Australia to 2050 is likely to include engagement in several major conflicts or wars based on the frequency of major conflicts which have occurred between 1900 and 2000. Current operational deployments include:
The strategic Northern push for the ADF was commented on in the 2000 White Paper. A new White Paper was announced in 2009 which will set out the Governments plans for the size and capability of the ADF to 2030. (10) Nationally, Australia’s geography has also changed, we are starting to recognise the value of our oceans, the Antarctic and our Island Territories. For example, oil and gas discoveries in New Guinea and the Timor gap will generate significant economic benefits to Australia.
Australia has the third largest fishing zone in the world covering an area of about 9 million square kilometres.(11) and the commercial fishing industry is the nations fifth largest primary industry. Our catches are relatively small by world standards and a number of our fisheries are already over exploited. About 200 species of fish, 60 species of crustacean , 30 species of molluscs and a few echinoderm species are taken commercially in Australian waters. The extent and geography of Australias ocean resources is increasingly important as our marine industries including tourism, oil and gas production, shipping, fishing and aquaculture continue to grow and change in value driven by the development of marine biotechnology, alternate energy and seabed mining. Capital city to capital city network migration will continue to dominate our new geography unless a concerted effort is made to change the trend. By 2050, to maximise our competitiveness globally we need to move from capital city domination to a network of cities and towns that are internationally competitive in their own right, contributing to a national agenda. From a geopolitical relationship perspective, Australia is strategically placed in the Japan/China/US axis. We now have Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) and defence agreements with all three players. Over 40% of Australias unmet trade flows relate to these three economies. All three countries have major challenges, Japan has a major shortage of ‘cheap’ labour, the oldest population in the industrialised world, and an economy that has been on the brink of recession for years, China is confronted with major challenges funding, managing and controlling growth to maintain internal stability while the US is confronting the effects of a major economic meltdown. The extent to which the US re-invents itself will determine if it can retain its role as a world superpower after 2009. Irrespective, Australia (particularly Northern Australia) is becoming globally important in a geo political sense. The USA has recognised this importance and has maintained an active and strategic presence. Japan has magnified its presence in Australia over many decades through the import/export activities of its major trading houses and more recently through direct investment in infrastructure (12) And China is a major exporter to Australia and a major purchaser of minerals and energy. After the Global Financial Crisis, China is investing significantly in Australian minerals and resource companies. New Environmental Challenges Australia has some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world and protecting these environments is a key part of sustainable and responsible nation and city building. In the mid 1990’s the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) produced a series of reports based on research that sought to establish Australias ‘Population Carrying Capacity’. These studies, based on biophysical modelling and food production potential argued that Australia’s ‘Population Carrying Capacity’ was between 7 million and 35 million people but the approach used by the CSIRO for these reports is termed ‘Environment Determinism’ because the key variable (in this case, the environment) is not assumed to change. Unfortunately the environment was unaware of it’s role as an unchanging key variable. Climate change in Australia has so far had little effect on planning but this will change as our climate, agricultural industries and regional/state populations change. As rainfall changes, new crops need to be researched, new ways of farming and development of new agricultural regions need to be explored and contemplated. Australia may even need to look north and inland to explore new options. In parallel our natural environments will evolve to reflect less rainfall, higher temperatures, more cyclones and more bushfires. From 2000 to 2004 Australias land based protected areas increased by more than 19 million hectares to a total of approximately 81 million hectares. (10.5% of Australia) (12) The following table shows that the national environment and agriculture (grazing and dry land) account for over 95% of Australias land area. It should be noted that only a small proportion of land classified as ‘conservation and natural environments’ (7% in total) is formally protected in reserves or protected areas.
We must develop environmental parameters that allow Australia to compete internationally, and not fight for development on a project-by-project basis, as is the case for major minerals and energy projects at present. (14) At the same time we need to identify and define the National Estate, what we want to preserve and how we can afford to maintain it. We can’t keep establishing national parks and marine reserves if we don’t know how to manage and maintain them. We need to set up a robust ‘trade off’ system not a ‘lock up’ system, which allows future generations to plan for their own future generations. Millions of hectares of land is being proposed to be permanently alienated for national parks, carbon sinks and to extract water rights. Together with land clearing controls the agricultural productive capacity of Australia will be affected – So what is our plan? Should there be a limit? **End of Extract**
1.1 Innovation, Communication and Information Technology (CIT) 1.2 Globalisation - Our New Geography
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) The Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies, 2007-2008 ranked Western Australia number 1 out of 68 mining locations in terms of mineral potential .
Things to consider: Around every 50 years a major debate results in Australia in relation to American bases and installations in Central Australia (Pine Gap for example) and the Northwest (Exmouth). More recently stronger relationships have been mooted with the expansion of Robertson Barracks in Darwin. The key question is whether Australia should accommodate American bases. FYIA White Paper is: a document exploring the options, results, responses and policies surrounding an issue. ADF expenditure was 20% of Gross Domesticc Product in 2008/2009 and is forecast to grow at least at 30% p.a to 2015/2016. Recent estimates put growth in expenditure as high as 40% p.a. One of the highest levels of growth in expenditure in the Federal Budget. Australia is the only country that contains an entire continent. Australia is the largest country without a land-border to neighbours. Australia is the largest country in Oceania Ordinary Australians are sympathetic to the issues faced by Indigenous peoples in remote communities but don’t know what to think or how to help. Australia is a strong supporter of free trade because of our dependence on agriculture and resource exports. Agriculture in Australia accounts for 65% of stored water use - Water accounts, Australia 2004 – 2005 ABS Cat No. 4610.0 Agriculture in Australia accounts for 55% of Australias land area - Agricultural commodity, Australia 2006 – 2007 ABS CAT No. 7121.0 The purchase of Tooralie station by the NSW and Australian Governments equated to 20 gigalitres of water on average annually at $203 per hectare. Using this purchase as an example, $3 billion will purchase over 11 million hectares of land.
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